November 2011 Home Sales Continue Stable Trend with Selling Prices Fluctuating

ST. JOSEPH, MI – "For the last three months we have seen selling prices fluctuate but many other factors have held stable. Since September, the number of houses sold has held steady ranging from 190 to 199 houses sold per month. Over the same time, the number of foreclosed transactions has been at or near the lowest percentages for the year. The local mortgage rates for the last three months have hovered just slightly above the 4 percent rate. The average selling price took a significant dive in October, dropping 16 percent from September but now has bounced back 15 percent in November to $170,600. The median selling price over the three months held almost even for September and October but dropped 19 percent in November to $88,000," stated Gary Walter, EVP, of the Southwestern Michigan Association of REALTORS®, Inc.

Walter continued, "For the most part this year in November our market surpassed where we were in November 2010. The number of houses that sold and closed jumped 15 percent over the number sold in November 2010 (193 vs. 168). This brings the market back to about where it was November 2009."

The local market total dollar amount soared 24 percent this November over last year ($32,925,704 vs. $26,543, 475). While the average selling price was up 8 percent ($170,600 vs. $157,997), the median selling price declined 7 percent ($88,000 vs. $ 95,000).

The year-to-date numbers, from August to November we have seen the market keep pace with what the market was doing a year ago. This cumulative trend suggests that the market is moving to a more stable, sustainable environment. Comparing year-to-date figures, the number of houses sold (2144 vs. 2122), dollar volume ($339,871,599 vs. $340,160,177)), and average selling price ($158,522 vs. $160,302), were all within 1 percent of the same figures at the close of November last year. The only exception is the year-to-date median selling price which fell to $98,900 from $103,750 a year ago, a 5 percent drop.

The median price is the price at which 50% of the homes sold were above that price and 50% were below.

Nationally, existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The National Association of Realtors also presented their periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners. Although rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month's supply.

"From a consumer's perspective, only the local market information matters and there are no changes to local multiple listing service (MLS) data or local supply-and-demand balance, or to local home prices," Yun explained. 

The NAR consumer survey data reported that Realtors® captured a greater market share in existing home sales. In 2000 showed FSBOs accounted for a 16 percent market share and that share fell to a record low 9 percent in 2010.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2 percent above the 3.94 million-unit pace in November 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more people are taking advantage of the buyer's market. "Sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34 percent above the cyclical low point in mid-2010 – a genuine sustained sales recovery appears to be developing," he said. "We've seen healthy gains in contract activity, so it looks like more people are realizing the great opportunity that exists in today's market for buyers with long-term plans."

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was$164,200 in November, down 3.5 percent from a year ago. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 29 percent of sales in November (19 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), compared with 28 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Midwestrose 4.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000 and are 15.7 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $133,400, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

All-cash sales accounted for 28 percent of purchases in November; they were 29 percent in October and 31 percent in November 2010. Investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 19 percent of homes in November, little changed from 18 percent in October and 19 percent in November 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 35 percent of transactions in November, up from 34 percent in October and 32 percent in November 2010.

"Locally, the number of bank-owned or foreclosed homes as a part of all closed transactions has increased slightly to 32 percent from 26 percent in October. Since July, the percentage of foreclosed transactions has stayed in the range of 26-32 percent. The number of bank-owned or foreclosed transactions peaked in March at 47 percent," Walter stated.

Walter continued, "As of November 30th, we had 2,807 houses listed for sale, which is an 11 percent decrease from the number we had in November 2010 (3160). This inventory level based on the last 12 month's sales gives us a 13.8-month supply of homes for sale, which is down from last year when we had a 15.8-month supply. The inventory has steadily declined since November 2008 when the inventory was at 16 months,"

Nationally, the total housing inventory at the end of November fell 5.8 percent to 2.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.7-month supply in October. "Since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, inventories have trended down and supplies are moving close to price stabilization levels," Yun said.

The mortgage rate in Southwest Michigan in November was 4.18, down slightly from 4.23 in October. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.99 percent in November from 4.07 percent in October; the rate was 4.30 percent in November 2010; records date back to 1971.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said housing affordability conditions have set a new record high. "With record low mortgage interest rates and bargain home prices, NAR's housing affordability index shows that a median-income family can easily afford a median-priced home," he said.

"With consumer price inflation rising by more than 3 percent this year, consumers are looking to lock-in steady payments by taking out long-term fixed-rate mortgages. However, the problem remains that some financially qualified families who are willing to stay well within their means are being denied the opportunity to buy in today's market by the overly restrictive mortgage underwriting situation," Veissi said.

The numbers reported for local sales include residential property in Berrien, and the western half of Van Buren and Cass counties.  All three counties are included in numbers and percentages and do not reflect differences in any individual areas.

The Southwestern Michigan Association of REALTORS®, Inc. is a professional trade association for real estate licensees and ancillary service providers for the real estate industry in Van Buren, Berrien and Cass counties.  The Association is located at 3123 Lake Shore Drive St. Joseph, MI 49085, (269) 983.6375.  They can also be contacted through their web site, www.swmar.com.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.